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Once upon a time, perhaps as long ago as 1990, there was mainstream composed of limited media (television, FM radio, and print); a river of products designed to be sold through those media; and a steady flow of buyers who were influenced by the same media (especially television). Then, in less than a decade, there came personal computers, the Internet, broadband computing, cell phones, iPod, MP3, TiVo, and on-line shopping. As impossible as it may seem, sixteen-year olds can’t recall a world without these. The result, according to author Chris Anderson, isn’t a single mainstream but an incredible number of small creeks all flowing in multiple directions into more niche markets than any past marketers thought possible. Anderson, currently the editor of Wired Magazine, has credentials as editor of publications such The Economist, Nature, and Science magazines. He uses the book to point out what should have been obvious at the turn of the 21st Century: “TV shows were more popular in the ‘70s than they are now not because they were better, but because we had fewer alternatives to compete for our screen attention. What we thought was the rising tide of common culture, actually turned out to be less about the triumph of Hollywood talent and more to do with the sheepherding effecting of broadcast distribution. “The great thing about broadcast is that it can bring one show to millions of people with unmatchable efficiency. But it can’t do the opposite — bring a million shows to one person each. Yet that is exactly what the Internet does so well. The economics of the broadcast era required hit shows – big buckets – to catch huge audiences. The economics of the broadband era are reversed…. “There’s still demand for big cultural buckets, but they’re no longer the only market. The hits now compete with an infinite number of niche markets, of any size. And consumers are increasingly favoring the one with the most choice. The era of one-size-fits-all is ending, and in its place is something new, a market of multitudes.” Anderson goes on to state that the sales result of this “market of multitudes” was unlike anything he had ever seen before. He graphed the hard data supplied to him by Rhapsody (one of the on-line music companies) and “it started out like any other demand curve, ranked by popularity. A few hits were downloaded a huge number of times, and then it fell off steeply with less popular tracks. But the interesting thing was that it never fell to zero. I’d go to the 100,000th track, zoom in, and the downloads per month were still in the thousands. And the curve just kept going. No store could ever carry this much music. Way out at the end of the curve, tracks were being downloaded just four or five times a month, but the curve still wasn’t at zero. In statistics, curves like that are called ‘long-tailed distributions,’ because the tail of the curve is very long relative to the head.” The staggering scope of making everything available to everybody on the planet is mind boggling. As we are rapidly discovering, the situation isn’t an industrial versus non-industrial situation. Despite the barbarity of terrorists in all parts of the world, they aren’t neo-Luddites and they are looking for choice. It’s the choices they want to impose on others that appears puzzling to us. They may not want iPods, but they have put cell phones to use as both communication devices and triggers for weapons. As Anderson puts it, “The secret to creating a thriving long-tail business can be summarized in two imperatives: 1. Make everything available. 2. Help me find it.” Although there hasn’t been much disagreement among economists about the long-tailed distribution effect, there are a growing number of questions about correct interpretation and impact on retail economics. Although the jury is still out on Anderson’s view of the future relationship of culture, marketing, and entertainment, he makes a thought-provoking case, one that is well worth the reading. -- Henry Holtzman |
Here are the current top 10 bestselling books for business. The list is compiled based on information received from retail bookstores throughout the U.S.A.
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